sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

BOS 5 / SEA 1
BOSBoston Red Sox51%
SEASeattle Mariners49%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterConnelly EarlyProbable
Model pickBOS moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
SEAHome starterEmerson HancockProbable
BOS51%ML +106
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
SEA49%ML -127

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.6 pts

Model picks BOS at 51.1% but market favors SEA at 53.9%. T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor suppresses scoring. Both starters carry sub-4.00 ERAs over 75+ IP with solid peripherals. Model total of 8.32 runs is 1.32 above market's 7.0—classic structural miss on extreme pitcher park. Lean SEA on home comparison, under on venue.

extreme parktotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Connelly EarlyBOS starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 draftkings / U +115 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Emerson HancockSEA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -140 draftkings / U +118 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+106 / -127BOS / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +102 / U -125
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total