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BAL 1 / SEA 3
BALBaltimore Orioles38%
SEASeattle Mariners62%

at T-Mobile Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterBrandon YoungProbable
Model pickSEA moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
SEAHome starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
BAL38%ML +125
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
SEA62%ML -150

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.0 pts

Model at 62.4% vs market 58.6% on SEA — modest comparison. Gilbert's 3.62 ERA over 79.7 IP is trustworthy; Young's 3.04 in 56.3 IP is solid but less established. T-Mobile Park (0.855 PF) structurally suppresses scoring. Model total of 8.82 vs market 7.5 is a 1.32-run gap; extreme park argues model overshot. Take SEA side, lean under on total.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 draftkings / U -125 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -136 draftkings / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%over
O 7.534%over
O 8.522%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+125 / -150BAL / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total