MLB / mlb / live
NYM 7 / SEA 1NYMNew York Mets49%
SEASeattle Mariners51%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterFreddy Peralta
Model pickSEA moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
NYM49%ML +120
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SEA51%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6%), market has SEA at 57%. Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Peralta's 7.20 ERA is concerning. T-Mobile Park (0.855 PF) suppresses runs but model predicts 9.13 vs market 7.0—a 2+ run gap suggests model misweighting park effect. Lean SEA on pitching comparison, strong under on total given extreme park and Kirby's form.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -145NYM / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total