MLB / mlb / live
NYM 2 / SEA 3NYMNew York Mets42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterAustin Warren
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
NYM42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.7 pts
Hancock's 6.0 IP with 0.00 ERA is microscopic sample. Warren has no starter data at all—likely an opener or bullpen game for NYM. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) argues under; model's 8.93 vs market 7.0 is structural park miss. No side pick justified with Warren unknown.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132NYM / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U -101
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total