MLB / mlb / live
NYM 2 / SEA 3NYMNew York Mets42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterAustin Warren
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
NYM42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.1 pts
Hancock's 6.0 IP with 0.00 ERA is microscopic sample. Warren has no starter data at all—likely an opener or bullpen game for NYM. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) argues under; model's 8.93 vs market 7.0 is structural park miss. No side pick justified with Warren unknown.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132NYM / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U -101
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total