MLB / mlb / live
ARI 2 / SEA 3ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryce Miller
ARI40%ML +120
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
SEA60%ML -144
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.2 pts
Model predicts 9.12 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.6 gap in a 0.855 park factor venue. T-Mobile suppresses scoring; model is overweight on recent Seattle home runs. Market at 58% home, model 60.2%, both favor SEA but gap not actionable. Strong under lean given extreme pitcher park.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -144ARI / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -118
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total