MLB / mlb / live
CHW 4 / SEA 5CHWChicago White Sox42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean Burke
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
CHW42%ML +122
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.4 pts
Model and market converge exactly at 58% on SEA. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample; Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP equally thin. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (0.855) argues under vs market 7.5. Model total 8.92 ignores park context—structural miss. offense_defense_mismatch flags CHW despite better record.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+122 / -144CHW / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +101 / U -122
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total