MLB / mlb / live
ARI 6 / SEA 7ARIArizona Diamondbacks40%
SEASeattle Mariners60%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterZac Gallen
Model pickSEA moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
ARI40%ML +120
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
SEA60%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts
Market at SEA -145 (58.1% implied) vs model 60.2% is tight. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) strongly favors under; model's 8.85 total is 1.85 runs above market 7.0. Kirby (1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 60 IP) is elite; Gallen's 9.00 ERA in 40 IP is small-sample noise but he's proven. Extreme park + ace Kirby argues under 7.0, not 8.85. Pass on side, lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -145ARI / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -112
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total