MLB / mlb / live
CHW 2 / SEA 1CHWChicago White Sox46%
SEASeattle Mariners54%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony Kay
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryce Miller
CHW46%ML +127
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SEA54%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.2 pts
Model has SEA 53.6%, market implies 57.8% — both near coin flip. CHW scores 5.7 RPG vs SEA 3.9 RPG, yet model picks the worse offense at home. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (PF 0.855) argues under on the 8.92 total, market set at 7.5. Miller lacks IP/ERA data so pitcher comparison unclear. Lean CHW on offense_defense_mismatch, lean under on extreme_park.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+127 / -150CHW / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total