MLB / mlb / live
SDP 7 / SEA 4SDPSan Diego Padres42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLogan Gilbert
SDP42%ML +140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -167
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.5 pts
Model has SEA 57.5%, market implies 60.5% — reasonable alignment. Gilbert's 5.06 ERA in 5.1 IP is tiny sample; Buehler stats are null. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 is extreme pitcher park. Model total 8.96 vs market 7.0 is a 1.96-run gap; lean under with market given park suppression and uncertain pitcher data.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -167SDP / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total