MLB / mlb / live
KCR 4 / SEA 1KCRKansas City Royals42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterKris Bubic
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLuis Castillo
KCR42%ML +105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -124
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts
Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes this unpickable on moneyline despite Castillo's reputation and T-Mobile's extreme park factor (0.855). Market total at 8.0 is reasonable; model's 8.97 overestimates given the park suppression. Lean under on total based on venue alone.
extreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -124KCR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total