MLB / mlb / live
KCR 7 / SEA 6KCRKansas City Royals42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterCole Ragans
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
KCR42%ML +130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -155
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Model at 58.1% vs market 58.3% on SEA – convergence is good. T-Mobile Park (0.855 PF) + Woo's elite 3.00 ERA/0.83 WHIP vs Ragans' 9.00 ERA/2.50 WHIP makes this a structural mismatch favoring home pitching. Model total of 8.81 is 1.81 runs above market 7.0 – that's a clear over-projection in an extreme pitcher's park with Woo dealing. Strong lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -155KCR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total