MLB / mlb / live
KCR 7 / SEA 6KCRKansas City Royals42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterCole Ragans
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
KCR42%ML +130
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.2 pts
Model at 58.1% vs market 58.3% on SEA – convergence is good. T-Mobile Park (0.855 PF) + Woo's elite 3.00 ERA/0.83 WHIP vs Ragans' 9.00 ERA/2.50 WHIP makes this a structural mismatch favoring home pitching. Model total of 8.81 is 1.81 runs above market 7.0 – that's a clear over-projection in an extreme pitcher's park with Woo dealing. Strong lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -155KCR / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total