MLB / mlb / live
OAK 4 / SEA 5OAKOakland Athletics46%
SEASeattle Mariners54%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterAaron Civale
Model pickSEA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLogan Gilbert
OAK46%ML +160
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SEA54%ML -190
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.2 pts
Model has SEA 53.6%, market 62.8%—a 9pp gap flags structural miss. T-Mobile PF 0.855 is extreme pitcher park; model total 9.0 vs market 7.5 ignores venue suppression. Civale missing all season stats is red flag. Market likely correct on SEA but total should lean under given park.
Large model-market gapextreme parkoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+160 / -190OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total