MLB / mlb / live
OAK 5 / SEA 2OAKOakland Athletics56%
SEASeattle Mariners44%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJacob Lopez
Model pickOAK moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLuis Castillo
OAK56%ML +145
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
SEA44%ML -172
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.8 pts
Market heavily favors SEA at 61.1% implied while model leans OAK at 55.7%. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (0.855 PF) argues for run suppression. Model's 8.89 total is 1.4 runs over market's 7.5 despite extreme park—structural miss. Castillo at home in pitcher-friendly venue tips SEA.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+145 / -172OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -109
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total