MLB / mlb / live
OAK 5 / SEA 2OAKOakland Athletics56%
SEASeattle Mariners44%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJacob Lopez
Model pickOAK moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterLuis Castillo
OAK56%ML +145
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
SEA44%ML -172
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap16.4 pts
Market heavily favors SEA at 61.1% implied while model leans OAK at 55.7%. T-Mobile extreme pitcher park (0.855 PF) argues for run suppression. Model's 8.89 total is 1.4 runs over market's 7.5 despite extreme park—structural miss. Castillo at home in pitcher-friendly venue tips SEA.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+145 / -172OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -109
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total