MLB / mlb / live
OAK 6 / SEA 4OAKOakland Athletics59%
SEASeattle Mariners41%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJ.T. Ginn
Model pickOAK moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
OAK59%ML +135
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
SEA41%ML -162
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap17.9 pts
Model badly underweights the ace matchup and extreme pitcher's park. Hancock (0.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9 in 6 IP) and Ginn (0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP) are both dealing in T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855). Model predicts 9.11 runs vs market 8.0; the structural miss is clear. Market correctly implies SEA ~59%, model wrongly favors OAK at 58.6%. SEA's .793 OPS vs OAK's .512 OPS seals it.
Large model-market gapextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -162OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total