MLB / mlb / live
OAK 6 / SEA 4OAKOakland Athletics59%
SEASeattle Mariners41%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterJ.T. Ginn
Model pickOAK moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterEmerson Hancock
OAK59%ML +135
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SEA41%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.6 pts
Model badly underweights the ace matchup and extreme pitcher's park. Hancock (0.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9 in 6 IP) and Ginn (0.00 ERA in 3.2 IP) are both dealing in T-Mobile Park (PF 0.855). Model predicts 9.11 runs vs market 8.0; the structural miss is clear. Market correctly implies SEA ~59%, model wrongly favors OAK at 58.6%. SEA's .793 OPS vs OAK's .512 OPS seals it.
Large model-market gapextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -162OAK / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total