MLB / mlb / live
TEX 2 / SEA 5TEXTexas Rangers42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterMacKenzie Gore
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
TEX42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SEA58%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts
Model at 58.1% vs market 57.0% is near-consensus on SEA, but offense_defense_mismatch flag fires (SEA 9-13, worse record). T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor plus ace matchup (Woo 3.00 ERA, Gore 3.38 ERA, both elite K rates) strongly argue under. Model's 8.88 total vs market 7.0 is a 1.88-run gap—model misweighting extreme pitcher park. Take under, pass on side.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150TEX / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total