MLB / mlb / live
TEX 2 / SEA 5TEXTexas Rangers42%
SEASeattle Mariners58%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterMacKenzie Gore
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterBryan Woo
TEX42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
SEA58%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.6 pts
Model at 58.1% vs market 57.0% is near-consensus on SEA, but offense_defense_mismatch flag fires (SEA 9-13, worse record). T-Mobile's 0.855 park factor plus ace matchup (Woo 3.00 ERA, Gore 3.38 ERA, both elite K rates) strongly argue under. Model's 8.88 total vs market 7.0 is a 1.88-run gap—model misweighting extreme pitcher park. Take under, pass on side.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatchextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150TEX / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total