MLB / mlb / live
TEX 3 / SEA 7TEXTexas Rangers52%
SEASeattle Mariners48%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickTEX moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
TEX52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
SEA48%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.5 pts
Model picks TEX at 52% but market has SEA at 55% implied. Kirby's 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 6.0 IP are elite early indicators; Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA is a disaster. Model's total of 9.14 runs versus market 7.0 is a massive 2+ run gap. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 is extreme pitcher-friendly. Model underweighting ace-park combination here.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -136TEX / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total