MLB / mlb / live
TEX 3 / SEA 7TEXTexas Rangers52%
SEASeattle Mariners48%
at T-Mobile Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickTEX moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
SEAHome starterGeorge Kirby
TEX52%ML +115
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SEA48%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts
Model picks TEX at 52% but market has SEA at 55% implied. Kirby's 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 6.0 IP are elite early indicators; Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA is a disaster. Model's total of 9.14 runs versus market 7.0 is a massive 2+ run gap. T-Mobile Park factor 0.855 is extreme pitcher-friendly. Model underweighting ace-park combination here.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -136TEX / SEA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total