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LAD 4 / SFG 3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterBlake SnellConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
SFGHome starterMatt WilkinsonConfirmed
LAD46%ML -285
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML +230

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time29.1 pts

Model's 54.5% on SFG versus market's 25.4% implied is a 29-point gap with no support: San Francisco is 65-95 at 3.3 RPG and .388 OPS against Blake Snell's 1.86 ERA and 12.1 K/9. The offense/defense mismatch flag points squarely at the model's pick. Oracle at 0.906 park factor plus Snell argues under the 7.5, well below the model's 8.15.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betonlineag / U +125 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-285 / +230LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+117)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -121
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total