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MIN 3 / SFG 2
MINMinnesota Twins47%
SFGSan Francisco Giants53%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
SFGHome starterAnthony MolinaConfirmed
MIN47%ML -139
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SFG53%ML +118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Market prices MIN at -129 (~56%) while the model has SFG at 52.6%; I side with the market. Bradley has 172 IP with a 10.39 K/9 versus Molina's 28 IP over 6 starts, a thin sample for a rookie. Model's 8.43-run total sits nearly a run over the 7.5 line despite Oracle Park's 0.906 park factor and MIN's 3.7 RPG, so under is the cleaner read.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Anthony MolinaSFG starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -141 draftkings / U +130 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +118MIN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -123
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total