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LAD 2 / SFG 0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers47%
SFGSan Francisco Giants53%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
SFGHome starterYunior MarteConfirmed
LAD47%ML -330
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SFG53%ML +260

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time29.2 pts

Model has SFG at 52.6% vs market 23.4% — a 29-point gap it cannot justify. Skubal (2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.4 K/9) faces a 3.7 RPG Giants offense, while Marte's 0.33 IP signals a bullpen game. Model also picks the worse team on both record and offense. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) plus Skubal argues under the 7.5, against the model's 8.28.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tarik SkubalLAD starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +111 draftkings / U -132 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 7.520%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Yunior MarteSFG starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-330 / +260LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total