sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
MINMinnesota Twins46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
SFGHome starterCesar PerdomoConfirmed
MIN46%ML -160
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
SFG54%ML +135

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.6 pts

Model has SFG at 54.5% against a market implying 43% — an 11-point gap I can't justify. Perdomo has only 3 starts and a 1.50 WHIP in 19.1 IP, so his 3.72 ERA is thin signal, while Prielipp brings 120 IP and 9.35 K/9. Oracle Park at 0.906 plus MIN's 3.6 RPG argues under the 8.0 rather than the model's 8.53.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.7
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Cesar PerdomoSFG starter / home
Projected K3.5
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.547%
O 4.528%
O 5.515%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus-160 / +135MIN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total