MLB / mlb / live
SDP 6 / SFG 4SDPSan Diego Padres58%
SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterNick PivettaConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
SDP58%ML -140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SFG42%ML +120
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nick PivettaSDP starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -106 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 draftkings / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-140 / +120SDP / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total