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MLB / mlb / live

STL 6 / SFG 7
STLSt. Louis Cardinals52%
SFGSan Francisco Giants48%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
SFGHome starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
STL52%ML -120
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SFG48%ML +102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts

Model has SFG at 53.7% against a market implying 45.5%, an 8pt gap I can't justify: STL has the better record (72-74 vs 61-85) and Pallante's 3.51 ERA over 141 IP is more established than Tidwell's 4.43 in 42.7 IP. The offense/defense mismatch flag reinforces skepticism. Model's 9.65 total is well above the 8.5 line despite Oracle Park's 0.906 park factor, so under.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -111 fanduel / U -108 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 draftkings / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +102STL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total