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SDP 7 / SFG 5
SDPSan Diego Padres51%
SFGSan Francisco Giants49%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterRobbie RayConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline51%Model 20260907_auto
SFGHome starterAnthony MolinaConfirmed
SDP51%ML -160
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SFG49%ML +133

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model is near coin-flip on SDP (51.1%) while market implies ~57%; SDP's 78-68 record and Ray's 151.1 IP body of work at 3.39 ERA support the market side, but no comparison worth more than a lean. Molina has only 4 starts/19.1 IP, so his 2.79 ERA is noise. Model's 9.25 total ignores Oracle's 0.906 park factor and the sub-3.50 ERA pair — take the under 8.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robbie RaySDP starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Anthony MolinaSFG starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 draftkings / U -108 fanduel8 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-160 / +133SDP / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total