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ARI 2 / SFG 7
ARIArizona Diamondbacks59%
SFGSan Francisco Giants41%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMitch BrattProbable
Model pickARI moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
SFGHome starterYunior MarteProbable
ARI59%ML -130
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SFG41%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

ARI is the better team (72-64 vs 55-80, 4.8 vs 4.2 RPG) and the model's 59.3% is a reasonable read, but the home starter is TBD/fallback and there is no market to anchor against, so this stays a lean. Bratt's 1.56 WHIP over 39.7 IP caps the comparison. Model's 9.06-run total looks high for Oracle Park (PF 0.906), but with no posted line I take no total position.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%under
O 3.536%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Yunior MarteSFG starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-130 / +110ARI / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total