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ARI 10 / SFG 6
ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterKohl DrakeConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
SFGHome starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
ARI46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML +101

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.1 pts

Model has SFG at 53.8% vs market's 44.7% implied, a 9-point gap in favor of the team with the worse record (55-79 vs 71-64) and lower OPS (.388 vs .564). Drake's 5.40 ERA in only 16.7 IP is thin, but that isn't enough to override the structural gap. The 9.14-run model total is far above the 7.5 line at Oracle Park (PF 0.906); under is the cleaner side.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kohl DrakeARI starter / away
Projected K3.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -117 draftkings / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%over
O 3.536%over
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 fanatics / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-120 / +101ARI / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -111 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total