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CIN 10 / SFG 9
CINCincinnati Reds45%
SFGSan Francisco Giants55%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterNick LodoloConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260824_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
CIN45%ML +102
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SFG55%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model's 9.03-run total is 1.5+ above the 7.5 market line despite Oracle Park at 0.906 PF and both clubs averaging 3.6 runs per game; that's a structural miss and I'll take the under. On the side, Roupp (4.34 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) edges Lodolo (5.04 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) at home, and model 53.8% sits close to market's 51.7%, so it's a mild SFG lean, not action.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanatics / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -114 fanduel / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -120CIN / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total