sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CIN 0 / SFG 5
CINCincinnati Reds46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
SFGHome starterCarson WhisenhuntProbable
CIN46%ML -175
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML +149

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time19.0 pts

Model's 59.4% on SFG versus market's 40.5% is a 19-point gap built on a fallback starter (TBD, 5.7 IP sample) and a team scoring 3.1 RPG with a .388 OPS. Burns brings 2.51 ERA and 10.52 K/9 over 136 IP; that's the reliable side. Oracle Park at 0.906 plus a weak home offense argues under 7.5, against the model's 8.52.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betrivers / U -115 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Carson WhisenhuntSFG starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -130 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-175 / +149CIN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -114
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total