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COL 5 / SFG 2
COLColorado Rockies41%
SFGSan Francisco Giants59%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterKyle FreelandProbable
Model pickSFG moneyline59%Model 20260810_auto
SFGHome starterLanden RouppProbable
COL41%ML +116
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SFG59%ML -134

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts

Model 59.1% vs market 54.8% on SFG is a modest, defensible gap. Roupp (4.22 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) is the clear comparison over Freeland (6.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), though Freeland's number is Coors-inflated. On the total, the model's 8.91 sits well above the 7.5 line; Oracle Park at 0.906 and San Francisco's 2.7 RPG argue under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kyle FreelandCOL starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -166 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -109 betonlineag / U -115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+116 / -134COL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total