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HOU 6 / SFG 3
HOUHouston Astros42%
SFGSan Francisco Giants58%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
HOUAway starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
SFGHome starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
HOU42%ML -150
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SFG58%ML +128

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.7 pts

Model has SFG at 58.3% vs market's 41.5% while picking the team with the worse record (49-69) and far worse offense (2.8 RPG, .388 OPS vs HOU's 5.2 RPG, .695 OPS). That mismatch plus a 17-point market gap points to a structural miss, so side with Houston. Model's 9.13-run total ignores Oracle Park's 0.906 factor and San Francisco's anemic scoring; under 8.5.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -162 betrivers / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Blade TidwellSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +115 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-150 / +128HOU / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -1 / U -118
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total