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DET 3 / SFG 1
DETDetroit Tigers42%
SFGSan Francisco Giants58%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
DET42%ML -131
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SFG58%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts

Model has SFG at 58.2% against a market implying 46.9%, an 11-point gap while picking the team with the worse record (49-68 vs 57-60) and far weaker scoring (4.3 vs 8.6 RPG). Melton's 1.58 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 74 IP outclass Webb's 3.74/1.11. Model total of 9.07 vs a 7.5 line ignores Oracle Park's 0.906 run factor; under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -161 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 fanduel / U -155 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-131 / +110DET / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-147)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total