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MIL 3 / SFG 16
MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterThomas PannoneConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
MIL46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML -111

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Model gives SFG 53.5% but market says MIL -118 (54.1%). Milwaukee's 67-40 record, 5.2 RPG, and .972 OPS dwarf SFG's 45-62, 3.9 RPG, .388 OPS. Oracle's 0.906 PF suppresses totals but model's 9.36 vs market 7.5 is too wide. Lean MIL side, over on total given offensive gap.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Thomas PannoneMIL starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 draftkings / U -135 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-106 / -111MIL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total