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scheduled
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
SFGSan Francisco Giants53%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanProbable
Model pickSFG moneyline53%Model 20260727_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbProbable
MIL47%ML -125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
SFG53%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.7 pts

Model gives SFG 53.5% but market says MIL -118 (54.1%). Milwaukee's 67-40 record, 5.2 RPG, and .972 OPS dwarf SFG's 45-62, 3.9 RPG, .388 OPS. Oracle's 0.906 PF suppresses totals but model's 9.36 vs market 7.5 is too wide. Lean MIL side, over on total given offensive gap.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.562%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-125 / +105MIL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total