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MIL 8 / SFG 2
MILMilwaukee Brewers54%
SFGSan Francisco Giants46%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
SFGHome starterLanden RouppConfirmed
MIL54%ML -152
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG46%ML +130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.6 pts

Model has MIL 54%, market implies 59% — defensible gap given SFG's poor offense (.388 OPS). Henderson's 11.03 K/9 in 38 IP with 0.94 WHIP is legitimate dominance. Oracle Park factor 0.906 suppresses totals but model at 8.78 vs market 7.5 is a 1.28-run gap worth taking over. MIL's 66-40 record reflects real quality.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanduel / U -120 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -101 draftkings / U -111 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-152 / +130MIL / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total