MLB / mlb / live
COL 1 / SFG 3COLColorado Rockies44%
SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael LorenzenConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonaldConfirmed
COL44%ML +130
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
SFG56%ML -152
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 betmgm / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Trevor McDonaldSFG starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +127 draftkings / U -135 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -152COL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -121 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total