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ATL 0 / SFG 5
ATLAtlanta Braves53%
SFGSan Francisco Giants47%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterBryce ElderConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbConfirmed
ATL53%ML +110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
SFG47%ML -130

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.7 pts

Model has ATL 53.4%, market has them at 47.7% — model is higher on the road favorite. SFG's 1.9 RPG and .388 OPS are catastrophically bad; ATL's 0.8 RPG looks like a typo but their .789 OPS is strong. Webb (3.35 ERA) vs Elder (3.71 ERA) at pitcher-friendly Oracle (0.906 PF) argues under the 8.0 market total. Model's 7.49 total aligns with under lean.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce ElderATL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 betmgm / U -150 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +123 betrivers / U -144 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+110 / -130ATL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total