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OAK 1 / SFG 2
OAKOakland Athletics58%
SFGSan Francisco Giants42%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterGage JumpConfirmed
Model pickOAK moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
SFGHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
OAK58%ML -116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SFG42%ML 0

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.9 pts

Model has OAK at 58.3%, market at 55.4%—modest comparison. Mahle's 6.04 ERA in 56.7 IP is real; SFG offense at .388 OPS is historically bad. Oracle's 0.906 park factor mutes OAK's 4.1 RPG but Jump's 2.37 ERA across 30.3 IP is short sample. Model total 9.41 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, driven by SFG bullpen exposure after Mahle.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +118 fanduel / U -136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.525%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Tyler MahleSFG starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betmgm / U -134 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-116 / 0OAK / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total