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CHC 5 / SFG 1
CHCChicago Cubs55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterJavier Assad
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLanden Roupp
CHC55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
SFG45%ML -126

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.6 pts

Model has CHC at 55.2%, market at 49.1% (away +100). Small comparison to Cubs but not actionable. SFG's 5.7 RPG vs 0.388 OPS is extreme (likely typo in data). Oracle Park (0.906 PF) suppresses runs slightly. Model total 9.33 vs market 8.5 suggests over, supported by CHC bullpen issues per SHAP.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Javier AssadCHC starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -165 betmgm / U +132 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 2.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%over
O 2.549%over
O 3.528%over
O 4.514%over
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -145 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -126CHC / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+166)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total