MLB / mlb / live
WSN 6 / SFG 3WSNWashington Nationals55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterAndrew Alvarez
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterAdrian Houser
WSN55%ML -108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
SFG45%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap5.4 pts
Model leans WSN 55.2% vs market 48.6% — a 6.6pp comparison but with missing pitcher stats (ERA/K9/WHIP null for both starters). Oracle Park factor 0.906 should suppress scoring but model has total at 9.31 vs market 8.5. Without pitcher peripherals I can't validate the margin call. Lean WSN on record (34-33 vs 27-40) and superior OPS (0.82 vs 0.388) but confidence capped by data gaps.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-108 / -110WSN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total