MLB / mlb / live
WSN 6 / SFG 3WSNWashington Nationals55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterAndrew Alvarez
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterAdrian Houser
WSN55%ML -108
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SFG45%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.6 pts
Model leans WSN 55.2% vs market 48.6% — a 6.6pp comparison but with missing pitcher stats (ERA/K9/WHIP null for both starters). Oracle Park factor 0.906 should suppress scoring but model has total at 9.31 vs market 8.5. Without pitcher peripherals I can't validate the margin call. Lean WSN on record (34-33 vs 27-40) and superior OPS (0.82 vs 0.388) but confidence capped by data gaps.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-108 / -110WSN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total