MLB / mlb / live
WSN 10 / SFG 11WSNWashington Nationals59%
SFGSan Francisco Giants41%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterFoster Griffin
Model pickWSN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterRobbie Ray
WSN59%ML -106
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
SFG41%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.1 pts
Model has WSN at 58.6% but market implies a near coin flip (SFG 51.6%). Griffin's 3.63 ERA over 72 IP is solid; Ray's 4.12 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in Oracle Park (PF 0.906) suggests vulnerability. SFG offense at 0.388 OPS is catastrophically bad—likely a data error or anomaly. Model total of 9.02 vs market 8.0 in a pitcher park suggests over lean, but treat with skepticism given sample noise.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -110WSN / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total