MLB / mlb / live
ARI 3 / SFG 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMichael Soroka
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonald
ARI46%ML -114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML -104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts
Model has SFG 53.6% vs market 45.6%, a 8pp gap. ARI is 29-25 with 6.2 RPG vs SFG 22-33 at 5.3 RPG. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) suppresses scoring. Model's 8.9 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.4-run miss, likely park misweighting. Lean ARI and under.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-114 / -104ARI / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total