MLB / mlb / live
WSN 4 / SFG 3WSNWashington Nationals46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterRichard Lovelady
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLogan Webb
WSN46%ML +130
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML -154
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts
Model sees a coin flip (50.6% SFG) but market has Giants at 59%. Both starters have terrible ERAs (Webb 10.8, Mikolas 7.2) in only 5 IP each—small sample noise. Washington's .820 OPS vs SF's .388 is massive; model underweighting that offensive gap. Oracle Park suppresses but can't save 10+ ERA arms. Lean WSN, over 8.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -154WSN / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total