MLB / mlb / live
CHW 9 / SFG 4CHWChicago White Sox56%
SFGSan Francisco Giants44%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterDavis Martin
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTrevor McDonald
CHW56%ML -118
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SFG44%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap3.9 pts
Market is a coin flip (CHW -105). Model has CHW at 55.7%, slight comparison but not exploitable. Model predicts 8.91 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.91 run gap. Oracle Park (PF 0.906) should suppress offense but both pitchers lack season ERA/WHIP data, making total unreliable. Lean CHW on superior offense (.729 OPS vs .388) but confidence downgrades on pitcher uncertainty.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-118 / -102CHW / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -116
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total