MLB / mlb / live
PIT 13 / SFG 3PITPittsburgh Pirates58%
SFGSan Francisco Giants42%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBraxton Ashcraft
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLanden Roupp
PIT58%ML -119
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SFG42%ML +100
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.8 pts
PIT road comparison looks real: 21-18 vs 15-23, 5.0 RPG vs 2.3, .710 OPS vs .388. Market at -114 (54% implied) is tighter than model's 58%, suggesting value faded. Oracle's 0.906 park factor plus SFG offensive collapse argues under 7.5. Model has 8.95 which is 1.45 over market—park effect underweighted.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-119 / +100PIT / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-171)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total