MLB / mlb / live
MIA 2 / SFG 6MIAMiami Marlins46%
SFGSan Francisco Giants54%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterEury Pérez
Model pickSFG moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterRobbie Ray
MIA46%ML -106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SFG54%ML -111
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.3 pts
Model has SFG 53.6%, market is dead even at 50.2%. SFG offense is league-worst at .388 OPS and 3.4 RPG. MIA's .774 OPS is strong. Model's +0.21 margin on the worse offense flags offense_defense_mismatch. Oracle Park factor of 0.906 pushes total down, but model at 8.89 vs market 7.5 is a 1.4-run gap—lean over given MIA's bats.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-106 / -111MIA / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -113
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total