MLB / mlb / live
LAD 0 / SFG 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTyler Mahle
LAD55%ML -213
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
SFG45%ML +176
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.0 pts
Ohtani data is fallback (only 6.0 IP logged), making this a thin-information spot. Market has LAD at 66.5% implied, model at 55.2%—an 11.3pp gap. SFG's .388 OPS is catastrophically bad over 23 games; LAD's offense is legitimate. Lean LAD but can't go standard with fallback pitcher data.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-213 / +176LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total