MLB / mlb / live
LAD 0 / SFG 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterTyler Mahle
LAD55%ML -213
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SFG45%ML +176
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.3 pts
Ohtani data is fallback (only 6.0 IP logged), making this a thin-information spot. Market has LAD at 66.5% implied, model at 55.2%—an 11.3pp gap. SFG's .388 OPS is catastrophically bad over 23 games; LAD's offense is legitimate. Lean LAD but can't go standard with fallback pitcher data.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-213 / +176LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total