MLB / mlb / live
LAD 3 / SFG 0LADLos Angeles Dodgers52%
SFGSan Francisco Giants48%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterTyler Glasnow
Model pickLAD moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLogan Webb
LAD52%ML -161
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
SFG48%ML +135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.0 pts
Model has LAD at 52% vs market's 59%; model total 9.17 vs market 7.5 is a massive 1.67-run gap. Oracle Park (0.906 PF) + Glasnow (3.0 ERA, 0.83 WHIP) argue for suppressed scoring. Webb's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is microscopic sample noise. Market total is more trustworthy here.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-161 / +135LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-131)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -116
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total