MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / SFG 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLanden Roupp
LAD55%ML -186
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SFG45%ML +155
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.2 pts
Model has LAD 55.2%, market at 64% (~-178). Model underweights LAD's 16-6 record and 5.8 RPG vs SFG's 3.9 RPG with .388 OPS. Oracle Park (PF 0.906) suppresses offense. Model's 9.33 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.3-run structural miss — typical park-factor underweight. Lean LAD and under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-186 / +155LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -119 / U -102
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total