MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / SFG 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
at Oracle Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
SFGHome starterLanden Roupp
LAD55%ML -186
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
SFG45%ML +155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.2 pts
Model has LAD 55.2%, market at 64% (~-178). Model underweights LAD's 16-6 record and 5.8 RPG vs SFG's 3.9 RPG with .388 OPS. Oracle Park (PF 0.906) suppresses offense. Model's 9.33 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.3-run structural miss — typical park-factor underweight. Lean LAD and under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-186 / +155LAD / SFG moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -119 / U -102
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total