MLB / mlb / live
ARI 11 / SDP 4ARIArizona Diamondbacks52%
SDPSan Diego Padres48%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline52%Model 20260921_auto
SDPHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
ARI52%ML +102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
SDP48%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -127 betonlineag / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -131 draftkings / U +120 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.562%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -120ARI / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total