sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIA 6 / SDP 7
MIAMiami Marlins41%
SDPSan Diego Padres59%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterEury PérezConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline59%Model 20260914_auto
SDPHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
MIA41%ML +130
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SDP59%ML -156

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts

Model (58.8%) and market (58.6%) agree on San Diego, and SDP's 85-69 record supports it over Miami's 76-78. The model's 9.40-run total is nearly two runs above the 7.5 line, which looks structurally wrong at Petco (PF 0.962) with Mize (3.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and Perez (3.99 ERA, 9.67 K/9) starting. Taking the under and a modest side.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K4.9
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.571%
O 4.553%
O 5.536%
O 6.523%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K3.6
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betmgm / U -127 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.548%
O 4.529%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+130 / -156MIA / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -108 / U -111
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total