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WSN 2 / SDP 9
WSNWashington Nationals42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJackson KentConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
WSN42%ML +156
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SDP58%ML -190

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.7 pts

Model (61.1%) and market (62.8%) agree on San Diego, so the side is uncontroversial: Buehler's 4.56 ERA over 136 IP is more reliable than Kent's 5.55 ERA/1.68 WHIP in 24 IP. The 9.61 model total is 1.6 runs above the 8.0 line and hard to justify at Petco (PF 0.96) with a 3.7 RPG home offense. Taking the under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 fanatics / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 draftkings / U -140 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+156 / -190WSN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total