MLB / mlb / live
WSN 2 / SDP 3WSNWashington Nationals43%
SDPSan Diego Padres57%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterJake IrvinConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline57%Model 20260907_auto
SDPHome starterNick PivettaConfirmed
WSN43%ML +165
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
SDP57%ML -200
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -135 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nick PivettaSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 fanduel / U +115 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+165 / -200WSN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total